IF HE CAN MAKE IT THERE...

Posted at 7:10 a.m. ET

Fred Dicker, of The New York Post, is one of the most respected journalists covering New York State politics.  New York has been considered in the bag for Obama.  But as Dicker writes today, there are private poll numbers being circulated.  Not so fast, Barack:

BOOSTED by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state - where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.

I remind you that New York is Hillary Clinton's state.  I do not see her rushing to the rescue.  Do you?

The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties - and produced deep worries among Democrats.

One great concern for Democrats is that the data show a continuous movement toward the McCain-Palin ticket by women, a majority of whom traditionally favor Democrats.

I'm writing this from White Plains, New York.  As I look out the window, I have a new respect for my fellow New Yorkers.  Maybe they're not quite the wild-eyed liberals I'd thought.

"If it winds up being tight in New York, that means McCain wins the election nationally," said a prominent Democrat familiar with some of the polling data.

From his mouth to...

The private polls have consistently shown the Obama-Biden ticket still leading but with less than 50 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 2.3 million voters.

The polls found McCain closing the gap with Obama during the past 10 days - in the wake of Palin's sensational GOP convention speech, Obama's crack that "You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig," and amid a swirling controversy over Palin's credentials to be vice president.

Hillary must be in Heaven.

And there's topping on the cake:

The polling data track the findings of a little-noticed Marist College poll of likely New Jersey voters late last week that found Obama barely ahead of McCain, 48 percent to 45 percent. New Jersey generally votes Democratic, though its enrollment is not as heavily Democratic as New York state's.

That was among likely voters, the best test.

The findings of the private polls will be tested by a series of public polls to be released over the next two weeks - starting with a Siena College survey of likely voters due out today.

And we will be watching and reporting.  Such fun.

September 15, 2008.